Paraguayan Chia Market Update
WHAT HAPPEND IN THE 2025 HARVEST ?
The 2024/25 campaign was marked by a severe double climate event that heavily impacted the harvest. In May and June, excessive rainfall fell directly onto chia that had already been cut and was drying in the field — a standard practice requiring 10 to 15 days before collection. The rain caused massive seed swelling, quality loss and fungal contamination. Plants still standing in the field also suffered damage from the excessmoisture.
Subsequently, agronomic frosts recorded between June and August — with below-zero temperatures across multiple production zones — compounded the damage. The combination of rainfall followed by frost is the most destructive possible scenario for this crop: it simultaneously affects volume and quality. The result was a genuine shortage of export-quality chia that, combined with speculation from producers holding stock in anticipation of higher prices, drove prices up by approximately 100% or more between June and October 2025.
OUTLOOK FOR THE 2025/2026 Crop Season
For the new campaign, the Paraguayan Chia Exporters Chamber estimates 200,000 hectares planted, up from 180,000 the previous year. This 11% increase in planted area represents a structural expansion of potential supply and is the primary factor behind the current downward price trend observed in both purchase and selling markets.
Regarding climate, the CAPECO forecast for winter 2026 — based on the CFSV2 model — anticipates the first agronomic frost (temperatures below 3°C at ground level) between mid-June and early July, with absolute minimum temperatures expected for Paraguay in the range of 0°C to +3°C. The last agronomic frost of the season is estimated around the 16 July–1 August window, coinciding with the weeks of peak harvest activity. Soil water content maps for July and August show moderate levels in the production zone, with no signal of the excess moisture that characterized 2025, though they do not indicate a completely dry year either.
In summary, the climate forecast available for 2026 is significantly more favorable than last year's, but the risk does not disappear: the June to August window remains critical, and a single rainfall event hitting cut chia in the field, or an intense frost, can change the outlook within a matter of days.
OUR VIEW
Taking into account the larger planted area and the natural price correction from the speculative highs of 2025, we see a general tendency toward lower prices than those recorded last year. This trend is already underway and is consistent with the historical behavior of agricultural markets following a speculative peak: more available supply, less urgent buying pressure, and greater normalization.
That said, chia is a crop where climate can reverse any trend within days. The 2025 season demonstrated this clearly. If the 2026 winter passes without significant adverse events, we expect a more stable market with prices below the 2025 peak.
If, on the other hand, intense frosts or harvest-time rainfall occur — a scenario considered less likely under the current forecast, but not ruled out — prices could stabilize or even partially recover.
At Euro Merc SA we closely monitor the Paraguay National Weather Service throughout the entire harvest window, and we will update our perspective as the winter progresses and the first field data becomes available.
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